The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) released today (16 September) its semi-annual forecasts for the Russian and Chinese economies. The autumn 2021 forecasts cover the period 2021–2023.
The forecast for the Russian economy has been revised upward on improved prospects for global economic growth and Russian exports. Oil prices and the expectations are also higher than in March. GDP should rise more than 3.5 % this year from last year’s low basis, before settling in 2022−2023 to slightly over 2.5 % p.a. on average. Several uncertainties surround the forecast. There could be unexpected changes in the course of the covid pandemic, global growth and oil prices. The return of international travel and the release of assets piled up by households last year can also significantly affect private consumption. Improved government revenues create opportunities for more generous budget spending.
Chinese on-yearGDP growth rises to about 8 % this year due to rapid recovery and last year’s low basis. However, the speedy phase of economic recovery is over and lower growth lies ahead. China is struggling with a shrinking working-age population, high levels of debt prevent deployment of capital to other use, and productivity enhancing reforms have not progressed. Higher-than-expected growth is possible if consumer demand strengthens markedly. However, the risk of below-forecast growth has increased during the pandemic. Growth could be severely impacted if debt becomes unsustainable, financial market disruptions generate uncertainty that spreads to the real economy or foreign relations hit an impasse.
The forecasts can be found at
https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/forecasts-for-Russia-and-China/
For further information
Russia: Senior Economist Vesa Korhonen, tel. +358 9 183 3440 / vesa.korhonen(at)bof.fi
China: Senior Economist Eeva Kerola, tel. +358 9 183 2512 / eeva.kerola(at)bof.fi
Russia and China: BOFIT Head Iikka Korhonen, tel. +358 9 183 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi