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    Bank of Finland, Rauhankatu 19 B, Helsinki

Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium): Adaptive learning and survey expectations of inflation

Co-author: Sergey Slobodyan


The use of survey information on infl‡ation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can refi…ne substantially the identi…cation of the shocks that drive the infl‡ation process. An optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for both infl‡ation and the other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit the survey information more effi…ciently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived in‡flation target, persistence and shock sensitivity provides a rich description of the joint dynamics in realized and expected infl‡ation.


Research seminars organised by the Bank of Finland's research unit are held on Thursdays at 10:30–11:45 in Rauhankatu 19, 3rd floor big meeting room (unless indicated otherwise). Seminars are held in English.

Research seminars are open to all economists (unless indicated otherwise). Please register in advance at research(at)bof.fi by noon of the preceding day. Visitors will be escorted from Rauhankatu 19 B (Kirjasto/Library) entrance to the seminar room 10 minutes before the seminar.