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DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:BOFIT Seminar - Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp) - Trade Sanctions Co-authors: Vasily Korovkin (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Alexey Makarin (MIT Sloan School of Management) and Jamila Nigmatulina (HEC Lausanne) Abstract How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 60% decline following the war's onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 31%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, with similar effects observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had sizable and far-reaching adverse effects. =0D=0A Online BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. The seminar will be recorded and the recording will be shared only with registered participants. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in  the Online Registration Form. =0D=0A The registration for the seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin. =0D=0A
DTEND:20251014T083000Z
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DTSTART:20251014T073000Z
LOCATION:MS Teams
SUMMARY:Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp) - Trade Sanctions
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