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DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Giovanni Ricco (University of Warwick) - Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices =0D=0A Abstract: A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via minimal theory-based restrictions. We find that the CBO model implies a smoother trend output but the second model better captures the business cycle dynamics of nominal and real variables. The methodology offers both a framework for evaluating official estimates of unobserved quantities of economic interest  and for tracking them in real time.=0D=0A Online Research seminars organized by the Bank of Finland's Research Unit are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in the Online Registration Form =0D=0A The registration for each seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin. =0D=0A
DTEND:20220303T094500Z
DTSTAMP:20220224T101810Z
DTSTART:20220303T083000Z
LOCATION:Teams Meeting
SUMMARY:Giovanni Ricco (University of Warwick) - Monitoring the Economy in Real-Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
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