Recent research has highlighted the importance of information, or expectations, regarding economic fundamentals, and has argued that changes in these expectations are related to business cycle fluctuations. The focus of much of this research has been on the possibility of expectations-driven business cycles, that is, on the possibility that news or perceptions about future economic fundamentals, such as productivity, generate positive co-movement between key current macroeconomic variables. Research has progressed to show, for example, that some forms of behavioural biases and shocks to expectations can be important sources of business cycle fluctuations in neoclassical models. On the other hand, the related question of agents' expectations formation mechanism can be an equally important factor for the key characteristics of business cycles and should therefore be placed high in the research agenda on business cycle fluctuations.

Thursday 1 November

8.30–8.45   Welcome and registration
8.45–9   Opening remarks
Sinikka Salo, Member of the Board, Bank of Finland
  Chair Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland)
9–10 Paper Presentation The International Propagation of New Shocks
  Author(s) Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia), Martial Dupaigne (University of Western Brittany, CREMAQ), *Frank Portier (CREMAQ-LEERNA, CEPR)
  Comments Ippei Fujiwara (Bank of Japan)
10–11 Paper Presentation The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops
  Author(s) *Karel Mertens (Cornell University)
  Comments Giacomo Carboni (European Central Bank)
11–11.30 Coffee
  Chair Lauri Kajanoja (Bank of Finland)
11.30–12.30 Paper Presentation Expectations Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement
  Author(s) *Karl Walentin (Sveriges Riksbank)
  Comments Markus Haavio (Bank of Finland)
12.30–13.30 Lunch
  Chair Antti Ripatti (Bank of Finland)
14–15 Paper Presentation n.a. Are Long-Run Inflation Expectation Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?
  Author(s) Meredith Beechey (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve), Benjamin Johannsen (Board of Governors ot the Federal Reserve), *Andrew Levin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, CEPR)
  Comments Markku Lanne (University of Helsinki)
15–16 Paper Presentation Sticky Information and Inflation Persistence: Evidences from US data
  Author(s) *Benedetto Molinari (University Pompeu Fabra)
  Comments Hui Tong (International Monetary Fund)
16–16.30 Coffee
  Chair Esa Jokivuolle (Bank of Finland)
16.30–17.30 Paper Presentation The Great Inflation and the Greenbook
  Author(s) Giacomo Carboni (European Central Bank), *Martin Ellison (University of Warwick, CEPR)
  Comments Liam Graham (University College London)
17.30–18.30 Paper Presentation Stock Market Volatility and Learning
  Author(s) *Klaus Adam (European Central Bank, CEPR), Albert Marcet (CREI, CEPR), Juan Pablo Nicolini (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)
  Comments Seppo Honkapohja (University of Cambridge, CEPR)
18.30 Close
19.30 Dinner at the Bank's Personnel Club

Friday 2 November

  Chair Martin Ellison (University of Warwick, CEPR)
9–10 Paper Presentation Learning in an Estimated Medium-Scale DSGE model
  Author(s) *Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE), Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium)
  Comments Joe Pearlman (London Metropolitan University)
10–11 Paper Presentation Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility
  Author(s) *Fabio Milani (University of California, Irvine)
  Comments Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium)
11–11.30 Coffee
  Chair Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland)
11.30–12.30 Paper Presentation Estimating a Small DSGE Model under Rational and Measured Expectations: Some Comparisons
  Author(s) *Maritta Paloviita (Bank of Finland)
  Comments Virginia Queijo von Heideken (Sveriges Riksbank)
12.30–13.30 Paper Presentation The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation
  Author(s) *Michael J. Lamla (KOF, ETH Zurich), Sarah M. Rupprecht (KOF, ETH Zurich)
  Comments Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank)
13.30 Close
13.30–15 Lunch