• huhti 21
  MS Teams

  tiistai 21.4.2026, 10.30

  Lisää kalenteriin

BOFIT Seminar - Philip A. Luck (CSIS) - The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets

Co-authors: Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University), André Kurmann (Drexel University) and Kyle Handley (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract
Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.

Online BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. The seminar will be recorded and the recording will be shared only with registered participants. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in the Online Registration Form.

The registration for the seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin.