Oleksandr Faryna (National Bank of Ukraine): The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach
This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience notable changes. We find CIS countries highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.
BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered.Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by email bofit(at)bof.fi or tel. +358 9 183 2268.
Seminars take place, as a rule, on Tuesdays, starting at 10.30 a.m. Visitors are escorted to the seminar room from the Rauhankatu 19 B (Library) entrance.