Eeva Kerola (Bank of Finland): In search of fluctuations: Another look at China’s incredibly stable GDP growth
Economic statistics influence policy analysis, political discussions and decisions. Being the world’s second largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity, Chinese gross domestic product figures are of great interest internationally. The reliability of the GDP figures has been debated widely for years, but has turned even more dubious in recent years due to the lack of fluctuations in the real GDP series. The aim of this exercise is to take the nominal GDP growth as given and to compute a new real GDP growth by constructing an alternative deflator. Although being inconclusive about the level of the real GDP growth, it manages to identify fluctuations that extend the year 2014. Based on the constructed growth series, there was a drop in real GDP growth in 2015–2016, after which the growth rate picked up before losing speed again at the beginning of 2018.
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