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DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:BOFIT Seminar - Nauro F. Campos (University College London) - Beyond the Magnificent Seven: New Stylised Facts of Post-Communist Transition and Their Implications for Ukraine's EU Accession Abstract Ukraine’s prospective accession to the European Union represents a pivotal moment in the history of European integration. Unlike previous enlargements, Ukraine combines huge territorial scale, a large population, wartime destruction, extensive reconstruction needs, and serious institutional reforms. As a result, its accession raises questions not only about Ukraine’s transformation but also about the future evolution of the European Union itself. This paper argues that the next enlargement is likely to be Ukraine-led and may become the first case in which the Union must adapt more extensively than the candidate country. Drawing on an ongoing manuscript project, the presentation synthesises theoretical and empirical research on previous enlargement rounds and examines their implications for future EU expansion. Particular attention is devoted to lessons from the post-communist transition experience and their relevance for understanding Ukraine’s path to membership. The paper reassesses the stylised facts that have shaped scholarly understanding of transition economies since the collapse of communism. Earlier research emphasised output collapse, institutional vacuum, trade reorientation, structural transformation, and substantial social costs. More recent evidence highlights market integration, convergence with Western Europe, institutional divergence, and the importance of EU-related reform incentives. Building on these contributions, the paper proposes a revised and more parsimonious set of stylised facts to inform debates on the next eastern enlargement. The central argument is that Ukraine’s long-run success will depend on the interaction between domestic reforms and external institutional anchors. At the same time, the European Union will need to undertake significant internal adjustments if enlargement is to remain politically sustainable and institutionally effective. Understanding these dynamics is essential for designing an accession process that strengthens both Ukraine’s European future and the integration project itself. =0D=0A Online BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. The seminar will be recorded and the recording will be shared only with registered participants. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in  the Online Registration Form. =0D=0A The registration for the seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin. =0D=0A   =0D=0A
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SUMMARY:Nauro F. Campos (University College London) - Beyond the Magnificent Seven: New Stylised Facts of Post-Communist Transition and Their Implications for Ukraine's EU Accession
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