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DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:BOFIT Seminar - Sinikka Parviainen (BOFIT) - Measuring rally effects under authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia’s war in Ukraine =0D=0A Co-author Will Pyle (Middlebury College) =0D=0A   =0D=0A Abstract Measuring politically sensitive attitudes in authoritarian settings is difficult because expressions of political support may reflect repression and social pressure as much as genuine belief. We propose a complementary approach: using responses to questions that are not themselves politically sensitive to provide indirect evidence about politically sensitive attitudes. Using subjective well-being (SWB), we ask whether within-person changes in life satisfaction, after accounting for changes in material and personal circumstances, can provide evidence of incorporation into a wartime national project. Drawing on more than a decade of panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (2013--2024), we find that life satisfaction rises significantly following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gains are initially larger among ethnic Russians and smaller in Moscow and St. Petersburg, consistently larger in military-industrial regions, and sharply lower among those nearest the front. This theoretically patterned heterogeneity is difficult to reconcile with generalized social-desirability bias and is consistent with differentiated wartime incorporation. By 2024, rising non-response and attenuating subgroup differences suggest that the informational value of SWB may deteriorate over time. =0D=0A Online BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. The seminar will be recorded and the recording will be shared only with registered participants. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in  the Online Registration Form. =0D=0A The registration for the seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin. =0D=0A  =0D=0A
DTEND:20261117T093000Z
DTSTAMP:20261104T082554Z
DTSTART:20261117T083000Z
LOCATION:MS Teams
SUMMARY:Sinikka Parviainen (BOFIT) - Measuring rally effects under authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia’s war in Ukraine
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