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DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Michael Ehrmann (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management) - The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations =0D=0A Co-author Paul Hubert (Banque de France and Sciences Po- OFCE) =0D=0A   Abstract Monetary policy effects are usually identified through surprises. We explore whether their effects differ when central banks exceed market expectations (“overdelivery”) versus fall short (“underdelivery”). We argue that these cases arise under fundamentally different conditions. As a result, they might send signals of different strength. Using panel evidence across 14 economiesandUS and euro area time-series evidence, we document that short-term interest rates respond up to ten times more to overdelivery surprises. Furthermore, they carry different informational content: overdelivery triggers macroeconomic forecast revisions consistent with central bank information effects, while un derdelivery generates revisions in line with standard monetary transmission.     Online Research seminars organized by the Bank of Finland's Research Unit are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered. Those wishing to attend a seminar are kindly asked to register in advance, by filling in  the Online Registration Form . =0D=0A The registration for each seminar is open until 9:00 am the day of the seminar. You will receive a link to join the seminar by email at the latest one hour before the seminar is scheduled to begin. =0D=0A =0D=0A
DTEND:20261022T084500Z
DTSTAMP:20261002T060316Z
DTSTART:20261022T073000Z
LOCATION:MS Teams
SUMMARY:Michael Ehrmann (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management) -  The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations
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