10th RiskLab Finland, Bank of Finland and European Systemic Risk Board Joint Conference on AI and Systemic Risk Analytics

Konferenssit ja työpajat

AI (Artificial Intelligence) is a new transformative technology that has shown its potential during the recent years. As evidenced, the fast development of AI methods and data centricity in finance is providing opportunities, but it is also posing new challenges to our economies. In particular, we have seen an uplift in several areas of AI, but especially in language technology and LLMs (Large Language Models). These technologies could change our societies profoundly, and therefore well-planned and targeted policies are key to develop a safe and sustainable society with the AI.

Similarly to last year, this year’s Systemic Risk Analytics conference has a strong focus on AI and systemic risk. The aim of the conference is to adopt methods and techniques from other disciplines, such as computer science, engineering, biology and physics, that use computer-intensive approaches, novel data sources, and of course AI. Examples of possible topics include how LLMs can be used to detect systemic risk, how the use of AI can change interdependencies in the financial markets and whether AI and quantum computing can pose new sources of systemic risks, e.g. operational risks and cyber risks.

Beyond of this, the conference welcomes also submissions on more traditional tools of systemic risk analytics and macroprudential policy, such as early-warning indicators, network and contagion analysis, macro stress-testing and tools for big data analytics.

Format, Timing And Venue

The conference will be held in a hybrid format, allowing virtual participation. The conference will take place on 27-28 June 2025 at Bank of Finland in Helsinki. The conference includes keynotes, panel discussions, presentations and poster sessions.

Program

Conference Day 1, Friday 27 June 2025

8.30–9:00 Registration & coffee

9:00–9:15 Conference opening: Katja Taipalus (Head of Financial Stability and Statistics Department)

Session 1

9:15–9:45 Gaming the Test? Window-dressing and portfolio similarity around the EU-wide stress tests

Claudio Barbieri  (European Central Bank)

9:45–10:15 Cassandra: an automated AI-based surveillance system to forecast bank distress from financial news

Javier Arranz Barquero (European Central Bank)

Alexandros Kouris (European Central Bank)

Christoffer Kok (European Central Bank) (virtual)

Anastasios Petropoulos (European Central Bank) (virtual)

Luca Parafioriti (European Central Bank) (virtual)

Session 2

10:15-10:45 Conditional Forecasting of Margin Calls using Dynamic Graph Neural Networks

Gabriele Visentin (ETH Zurich)

10:45-11:15 Trusting Deep Learning Networks for Credit Default Predictions under Imbalanced Data: Investigation of Potential Bias

Alexie Alupoaiei (National Bank of Romania)

Session 3

11:15–11:45 Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures

Grzegorz Halaj (European Central Bank)

11:45–12:15 Can Large Language Models Trade? AI Agents Competing in Stock Markets

Alejandro Lopez Lira (University of Florida) (virtual)

12:15–13:15  Lunch (Poster session 1)

13:15–14:00 Expert Brief Speech: Sampo Pyysalo (University Research Fellow, TurkuNLP group, University of Turku) 

14:00-14:15 Intro: Olli Rehn (Governor, Bank of Finland and First Vice-Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board) 

14:15-15:00 Keynote: Simon Johnson (2024 Nobel Laureate in economics, Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, Faculty Director of MIT’s Shaping the Future of Work initiative, and Co-Chair of the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council) 

15:00-15:30 Fireside Chat: Olli Rehn (Governor, Bank of Finland and First Vice-Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board) interviews Simon Johnson (2024 Nobel Laureate in economics, Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, Faculty Director of MIT’s Shaping the Future of Work initiative, and Co-Chair of the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council) 

15:30–15:45 Refreshments

Session 4

15:45–16:15 Homeowners’ budgets and debt servicing capacity projections

Rikke Nissen (Danmarks Nationalbank)

16:15–16:45 Cyber mapping as a tool for monitoring cyber risk

Borut Poljšak (Banka Slovenija) (virtual)

16:45-17:00  Closing remarks for Day 1

Posters (presented at lunch break)

The Role of Machine Learning in Enhancing Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Compliance

Muhammad Babar Shahzad

When and what level? Calibration of the countercyclical capital buffer using early warning models

Arthur Rutkowski

 

Conference Day 2, Saturday 28 June 2025

9:15–9:30 Registration & coffee

9:30-10:15 Keynote (virtual): Gaston Gelos (Deputy Head of the Monetary and Economic Department and Head of Financial Stability Policy, BIS)

10:15-11:00 Expert Brief Speech: Iman van Lelyveld (Professor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

11.00–11.45 Presentation: Janna Salokangas (Co-Founder, CEO, Themia World)

11:45–12:45  Light lunch (Poster session 2) 

Session 5

12:45–13:15 Beyond the Balance Sheet: The Role of Social Sentiment in Financial Contagion

Wagner Eduardo Schuster (Goethe University Frankfurt)

13:15–13:45 Risky Words and Returns

Sina Seyfi (Aalto University)

Session 6

13:45-14:15 NBFI Sentiment Analysis and Negative News Monitoring using Generative AI Technology

Henry Yun Fat Chan (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

14:15-14:45 Navigating the Digital Frontier: Unraveling the Impact of Bank Technology Innovations on Idiosyncratic and Systemic Risks

 Aneta Hryckiewicz (Said Business School; University of Oxford; Kozminski University)

14:45–15:00 Conference closing: Kaj-Mikael Björk (University of Turku), Katja Taipalus (Bank of Finland), and Tuomas Peltonen (ESRB Secretariat)

Posters (presented at lunch break)

Uniform Standards, Unified Risks: How the Expected Credit Loss Model Homogenizes Banks and Amplifies Systemic Risk

Anand Srinivasan

Good AI, bad for banks?

Stefan Schellerer

 

Registration instructions

Conference participation requires pre-registration and is free of charge. However, participants are expected to pay their expenses for travel and accommodation.

Please note that participation in the event requires registration. You can register using the following link: Registration link

More information can be requested from fs.events@bof.fi.

Conference Organisers 

  • Kaj-Mikael Björk (RiskLab at Arcada, Centre for Intelligent Computing - cic.utu.fi)
  • Tuomas Peltonen (European Systemic Risk Board)
  • Katja Taipalus (Bank of Finland)