BOFIT forecast for Russia projects GDP growth of about 3.5% pa in 2012–2014. Growth is projected to slow towards the end of the forecast period, while the oil price is assumed to decline slightly. Russia’s imports are expected to increase about 7% pa. The risks around the forecast are mostly downward.
The pace of economic growth in China continues to be strong, despite a slight slow-down. China's GDP is expected to grow 8% pa in 2012–2013, slowing to 7% in 2014. The slowing pace of growth is a reflection of structural factors in the economy. Sorting out problems caused by a credit bubble related to the earlier stimulus policy causes problems for the current economic policy. Continuing with economic reforms forms another hard-to-manage policy entity.
The forecasts are posted at http://www.bof.fi/bofit_en
Additional information:
Senior Economist Vesa Korhonen, +358(0)10 831 2834 / vesa.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia)
Senior Economist Jouko Rautava, +358(0)10 831 2280 / jouko.rautava(at)bof.fi (China)
Head of BOFIT Iikka Korhonen, +358(0)10 831 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia and China)
Senior Economist Jouko Rautava, +358(0)10 831 2280 / jouko.rautava(at)bof.fi (China)
Head of BOFIT Iikka Korhonen, +358(0)10 831 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia and China)