Olga Zajkowska (Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences) - Labour Market Attitudes, Institutional Trust, and Migration Perception in Times of Wars: Evidence from Ukraine

BOFIT-seminarier

BOFIT Seminar - Olga Zajkowska (Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences) - Labour Market Attitudes, Institutional Trust, and Migration Perception in Times of Wars: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract
Most research on the economic consequences of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has focused on those who left, particularly refugees' integration into host-country labour markets. Much less is known about those who stayed, even though they will bear the burden of reconstruction and their trust in institutions will shape whether reforms succeed. This study addresses this gap using waves 6 and 11 of European Social Survey (ESS), with fieldwork carried out before 2014 and post 2022 respectively. This gives a harmonised before-and-after design with a pre-war baseline. The analysis examines three dimensions of change between the pre-war and wartime waves: trust in domestic and international institutions, labour market participation and informality, and attitudes toward redistribution and the role of the state. Additional heterogeneity is investigated over language and by region, which serves as a proxy for exposure to the conflict. 

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