Eeva Kerola (BOFIT) - What 31 provinces reveal about growth in China

Co-author: Benoit Mojon (BIS)


Being the engine of the global economy, it is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, research on this subject became more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. To obtain more variation, we utilize a macroeconomic dataset covering the 31 Chinese provinces from two decades. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces.

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