Oleksandr Faryna (National Bank of Ukraine) - Tracking the War in Real Time

Co-author: Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine)

This study reviews the datasets and approaches used by the National Bank of Ukraine to examine the short-time aftermaths of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Specifically, we test unconventional data sources such as Google Trends and night-time light intensity supplemented by flash surveys in banking to assess the damages to Ukraine. In contrast to past wars or local conflicts, technological progress makes it possible for us to trace the intensity of attacks and caused injuries to the economy during this devastating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Detecting such detrimental events in real-time allows estimating of regional aftershocks regarding economic output and labor force migration. We also explore the ways Ukrainian regions restore their economic activity after the exogenous shock. This research has considerable policy implications and highlights potential avenues for the future reconstruction of Ukraine.

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