The Bank of Finland's Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) today released its semi-annual forecasts for the Russian and Chinese economies.
Russia: After two years of declineRussian GDP is expected to grow 1.5 % this year supported by higher oil prices. Growth is led by private domestic demand which also stimulates imports. Russian growth should remain sluggish in coming years as the economy is already operating near full capacity and needed structural reforms are still nowhere in sight. The biggest short-term risk is fluctuations in the price of oil which may accelerate or slow down the growth from the baseline forecast.
China: Gradual slowing of the Chinese economy is expected to continue. GDP growth this year is forecasted to be about 6 %, after which it falls to around 5 % in 2018–2019. Despite deceleration, the basic outlook for the forecast period is positive as growth remains robust and the slowdown is under control. This requires, however, improved discipline with regards to rising debt and more determined implementation of reform policies than we observe now.
BOFIT forecasts are available online: www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/forecasts-for-Russia-and-China
For further information:
Heli Simola, senior economist, +358 10 831 2263 / heli.simola(at)bof.fi (Russia)
Jouko Rautava, adviser, +358 10 831 2280 / jouko.rautava(at)bof.fi (China)
Iikka Korhonen, BOFIT head, +358 10 831 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia and China).