The Bank of Finland's Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) today released its semi-annual forecasts for the Russian and Chinese economies.
Russia: Russian GDP is expected to grow 1.5 % p.a. through 2019 on the assumption that oil prices remain roughly at current levels. Growth will be driven by recovering domestic private demand, which also is expected to support a brisk recovery in imports. Russian economy is already growing close to its potential pace and achieving faster sustainable growth would require major structural reforms that are currently nowhere in sight.
China: Gradual slowing of the Chinese economy is expected to continue. GDP growth this year is forecasted to be about 6.5 %, after which it falls to around 6 % in 2018 and 5 % in 2019. This gradual slowdown is, above all, a natural evolution for China's economy that reflects on-going structural changes, and requires change from debt-driven economic policy to more sustainable framework. The financial market risks are elevated and pose a risk to economic growth.
BOFIT forecasts are available online: www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/forecasts-for-Russia-and-China
For further information:
Heli Simola, senior economist, +358 9 183 2263 / heli.simola(at)bof.fi (Russia)
Juuso Kaaresvirta, senior economist, +358 9 183 2107 / juuso.kaaresvirta(at)bof.fi (China)
Iikka Korhonen, BOFIT head, +358 9 183 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia and China).