In the aftermath of the pandemic and in the face of recent geopolitical shocks we have entered a period of high inflation and vulnerable growth in many regions, creating new (and old) challenges to monetary policy. This episode was preceded by a sustained period of low inflation and low policy interest rates, during which debt levels kept rising. The new environment has brought to the fore important questions about understanding and modelling inflation, its drivers and dynamics, the monetary-fiscal interactions, and even monetary policy strategies that the leading central banks had only recently reviewed. The conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to monetary economics, including the current trends.
PROGRAM
Times in UTC +3.
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FRIDAY (16 JUNE 2023)
8.30-9.00 Registration
9.00-10.30 Session I: Inflation Expectations
Chair: Esa Jokivuolle (Bank of Finland)
9.00-9.30 Price Setting when Expectations are Unauthored
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Carlos Carvalho (Kapitalo Investimentos and PUC-Rio)
Co-authors: Co-authors: Daniel Abib (University of Western Ontario), João Ayre (IADB), Marco Bonomo (INSPER), Stefano Eusepi (University of Texas at Austin), Silvia Matos (IBRE-FGV and EPGE-FGV), Marina Perrupato (IADB)
9.30-10.00 Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment
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Lena Dräger (Leibniz University Hannover)
Co-author: Giang Nghiem (Leibniz University Hannover)
10.00-10.30 Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees
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Lukas Buchheim, Technische Universität Dortmund
Co-authors: Sebastian Link (University of Munich, IZA and CES), Sascha Möhrle (Institute and University of Munich)
10.30-11.00 Coffee break
11.00-11.30 Policy Keynote Speech
Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland
Chair: Juha Kilponen (Bank of Finland)
11.30-12.15 Invited Speech: ''Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall, and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics''
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Antonella Trigari (Bocconi University)
Chair: Juha Kilponen (Bank of Finland)
12.15-13.15 Lunch break
13.15-14.45 Session II: Macro Labor
Chair: Markus Haavio (Bank of Finland)
13.15-13.45 Monetary Policy and Wage Inequality: The Labour Mobility Channel
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Ekaterina Shabalina, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR
Co-authors: Ester Faia (Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR), Marianna Kudlyak (FRB San Fransisco, Hoover Institution, CEPR, IZA), David Wiczer (FRB of Atlanta)
13.45-14.15 Robot Adoption and Inflation Dynamics
Henrique S. Basso, Banco de España
Co-author: Omar Rachedi (ESADE Business School and Universitat Ramon Llull)
14.15-14.45 Inclusive Monetary Policy: How Tight Labor Markets Facilitate Broad-Based Employment Growth
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Benjamin Born, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR
Co-authors: Nittai K. Bergman (Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University), David Matsa (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University), Michael Weber (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)
14.45-15.15 Coffee break
15.15-16.00 Invited Speech: ''Optimal Monetary Policy with Redistribution''
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Jennifer La'O (Columbia University)
Co-author: Wendy Morrison (Columbia University)
Chair: Francesco D'Acunto (Georgetown University)
16.00-17.30 Session III: Monetary Policy
Chair: Francesco D'Acunto (Georgetown University)
16.00-16.30 Financial Crises
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Cristina Manea, Bank for International Settlements
Co-authors: Frederic Boissay (Bank of International Settlements), Fabrice Collard (Toulouse School of Economics), Jordi Gali (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics)
16.30-17.00 Raising the Inflation Target: What Are the Effective Gains in Policy Room
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Jean-Paul L'Huilier, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Clevland
Co-author: Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
17.00-17.30 A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets
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Christopher Clayton, Yale School of Management
Co-author: Andreas Schaab (Toulouse School of Economics)
17.30 Conference day 1 has ended
SATURDAY (17 JUNE 2023)
8.45-9.15 Registration and morning coffee
9.15-10.00 Invited Speech: ''Demand, Inflation Persistence, and the Philips Curve''
Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University)
Chair: Michael Weber (The Univeristy of Chicago)
10.00-11.30 Session IV: Cognition and Behavioral Factors
Chair: Michael Weber (The Univeristy of Chicago)
10.00-10.30 Heterogeneity in what? Cognitive Skills, Beliefs, and the Liquid Wealth Distribution
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Oliver Pfäuti, University of Mannheim
Co-authors: Fabian Seyrich (Berlin School of Economics, DIW Berlin and Frele Universität Berlin), Jonathan Zinman (Dartmouth College, Department of Economics)
10.30-11.00 A KISS for Central Bank Communication in Times of High Inflation
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Mathias Hoffman, Deutsche Bundesbank
Co-authors: Emanuel Moench (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR), Lora Pavlova (Deutsche Bundesbank, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), Guido Schultefrankenfeld (Deutsche Bundesbank)
11.00-11.30 Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience
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Hiroshi Toma, University of Michigan
Co-authors: Mathieu Pedemonte (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), Esteban Verdugo (University of Michigan)
11.30-12.30 Lunch break
12.30-13.15 Invited Speech: ''Price Level and Inflation Dynamics with Persistent Deficits: Lessons from Heterogeneous Agent Economies''
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Greg Kaplan (University of Chicago)
Chair: Seppo Honkapohja (Aalto University)
13.15-14.45 Session V: Large Shocks and New Policies
Chair: Seppo Honkapohja (Aalto University)
13.15-13.45 The scarring effects of deep contractions
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Mikael Juselius (Bank of Finland)
Co-authors: David Aikman (King's College London), Mathias Drehmann (Bank for International Settlements), Xiaochuan Xing (Balyasny Asset Management L.P.)
13.45-14.15 Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints
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Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland, CEPR, NBER
Co-authors: Julian di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR), Alvaro Silva (University of Maryland), Muhammed A. Yildrim (Harvard University and Koç University)
14.15-14.45 Exit Strategies from Quantitative Easing: The role of the fiscal-monetary policy mix
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Florencia S. Airaudo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
14.45 The conference has ended
Organizing Committee:
Francesco D’Acunto (Georgetown University)
Daniel Hoang (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
Seppo Honkapohja (Aalto University and CEPR)
Juha Kilponen (Bank of Finland)
Esa Jokivuolle (Bank of Finland)
Michael Weber (University of Chicago and CEPR)