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Mykola Ryzhenkov (Osnabrück University) - International Trade when Ports are Blocked
BOFIT Seminar - Mykola Ryzhenkov (Osnabrück University) - International Trade when Ports are Blocked
Co-author: Oleksandr Shepotylo (Aston University)
Abstract
Ports have been essential gateways for transporting Ukrainian goods to international markets. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion has been accompanied by a blockade of naval transportation routes that significantly complicated the logistics of Ukraine’s exports. We study how the blockade and occupation of Ukrainian ports affected exports of Ukraine using monthly data from the Trade Data Monitor in 2017-2024. We employ difference-in-differences and shift-share methods to infer the causal effect of access to maritime routes on exports. In particular, we find that goods transported more by sea experience a stronger decline in value and quantity of exports, and an increase in FOB prices. We also find evidence that port blockade is associated with reduced varieties of goods shipped with maritime transport and a higher probability of switching to another mode of transportation.
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