David Karpa (University of Helsinki) - Language Affinity, Russian Media and Sanctions Evasion

BOFIT Seminar - David Karpa (University of Helsinki) - Language Affinity, Russian Media and Sanctions Evasion

Co-authors:  Andrey Tkachenko (Nazarbayev University), Michael Rochlitz (University of Oxford), Meruyert Tatkeyeva (Nazarbayev University) and Galiya Sagyndykova (Nazarbayev University)

Abstract
Does language affinity facilitate the export of propaganda by authoritarian regimes? And what are the real-world consequences of authoritarian propaganda abroad? We study these questions for the context of Kazakhstan with the help of multiple rounds of survey data, online search statistics, our own original survey and international trade data. We identify a shift towards pro-Russian opinions among the Russian-speaking population of Kazakhstan after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even among Kazakh citizens who are ethnically non-Russian. We trace this shift of opinion back to a substantial increase in consumption of pro-Kremlin internet news and Russian social media content after February 2022. Using our own original survey, we show that consumers of Russian propaganda are more likely to condone the circumvention of sanctions against Russia. Finally, using detailed trade data, we document that re-exports of sanctioned products to Russia increased disproportionately from regions where the population is more likely to be exposed to Russian propaganda. Taken together, our results show how through the channel of language, former colonial powers can still influence beliefs and economic behavior in their former colonies.

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