Recent research has highlighted the importance of information, or expectations, regarding economic fundamentals, and has argued that changes in these expectations are related to business cycle fluctuations. The focus of much of this research has been on the possibility of expectations-driven business cycles, that is, on the possibility that news or perceptions about future economic fundamentals, such as productivity, generate positive co-movement between key current macroeconomic variables. Research has progressed to show, for example, that some forms of behavioural biases and shocks to expectations can be important sources of business cycle fluctuations in neoclassical models. On the other hand, the related question of agents' expectations formation mechanism can be an equally important factor for the key characteristics of business cycles and should therefore be placed high in the research agenda on business cycle fluctuations.
Thursday 1 November
8.30–8.45 | Welcome and registration | |
8.45–9 | Opening remarks Sinikka Salo, Member of the Board, Bank of Finland |
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Chair | Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland) | |
9–10 | Paper Presentation | The International Propagation of New Shocks |
Author(s) | Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia), Martial Dupaigne (University of Western Brittany, CREMAQ), *Frank Portier (CREMAQ-LEERNA, CEPR) | |
Comments | Ippei Fujiwara (Bank of Japan) | |
10–11 | Paper Presentation | The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops |
Author(s) | *Karel Mertens (Cornell University) | |
Comments | Giacomo Carboni (European Central Bank) | |
11–11.30 | Coffee | |
Chair | Lauri Kajanoja (Bank of Finland) | |
11.30–12.30 | Paper Presentation | Expectations Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement |
Author(s) | *Karl Walentin (Sveriges Riksbank) | |
Comments | Markus Haavio (Bank of Finland) | |
12.30–13.30 | Lunch | |
Chair | Antti Ripatti (Bank of Finland) | |
14–15 | Paper Presentation n.a. | Are Long-Run Inflation Expectation Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States? |
Author(s) | Meredith Beechey (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve), Benjamin Johannsen (Board of Governors ot the Federal Reserve), *Andrew Levin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, CEPR) | |
Comments | Markku Lanne (University of Helsinki) | |
15–16 | Paper Presentation | Sticky Information and Inflation Persistence: Evidences from US data |
Author(s) | *Benedetto Molinari (University Pompeu Fabra) | |
Comments | Hui Tong (International Monetary Fund) | |
16–16.30 | Coffee | |
Chair | Esa Jokivuolle (Bank of Finland) | |
16.30–17.30 | Paper Presentation | The Great Inflation and the Greenbook |
Author(s) | Giacomo Carboni (European Central Bank), *Martin Ellison (University of Warwick, CEPR) | |
Comments | Liam Graham (University College London) | |
17.30–18.30 | Paper Presentation | Stock Market Volatility and Learning |
Author(s) | *Klaus Adam (European Central Bank, CEPR), Albert Marcet (CREI, CEPR), Juan Pablo Nicolini (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella) | |
Comments | Seppo Honkapohja (University of Cambridge, CEPR) | |
18.30 | Close | |
19.30 | Dinner at the Bank's Personnel Club |
Friday 2 November
Chair | Martin Ellison (University of Warwick, CEPR) | |
9–10 | Paper Presentation | Learning in an Estimated Medium-Scale DSGE model |
Author(s) | *Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE), Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) | |
Comments | Joe Pearlman (London Metropolitan University) | |
10–11 | Paper Presentation | Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility |
Author(s) | *Fabio Milani (University of California, Irvine) | |
Comments | Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) | |
11–11.30 | Coffee | |
Chair | Jouko Vilmunen (Bank of Finland) | |
11.30–12.30 | Paper Presentation | Estimating a Small DSGE Model under Rational and Measured Expectations: Some Comparisons |
Author(s) | *Maritta Paloviita (Bank of Finland) | |
Comments | Virginia Queijo von Heideken (Sveriges Riksbank) | |
12.30–13.30 | Paper Presentation | The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation |
Author(s) | *Michael J. Lamla (KOF, ETH Zurich), Sarah M. Rupprecht (KOF, ETH Zurich) | |
Comments | Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank) | |
13.30 | Close | |
13.30–15 | Lunch |